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. 23/10/2024 3:03 PM
In a bold move, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has proposed a new law aimed at encouraging residents to have more children. The initiative stems from concerns about a population deficit, as data indicates that families with fewer than two children may lead to a rapid decline in the youth demographic. This issue is particularly pressing in southern states, where lower fertility rates could result in reduced parliamentary representation.
Recent statistics from a 2020 report by the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare paint a concerning picture for India's demographic future. The report suggests that India’s population is aging, with the percentage of individuals aged 60 and above expected to increase significantly, especially in southern states, which adopted lower fertility rates much earlier than their northern counterparts. For instance, Uttar Pradesh is projected to reach replacement-level fertility only next year—over two decades after Andhra Pradesh achieved this milestone.
Between 2011 and 2036, India's population is expected to grow by approximately 31.1 crore, with southern states contributing a mere 2.9 crore to this increase. This demographic shift poses challenges, as an aging population means a higher dependency on the working-age demographic. The rising dependency ratio could strain state resources, necessitating increased funding for healthcare and support for the elderly.
The demographic transition has also ignited discussions about electoral delimitation. Southern states are apprehensive about losing Lok Sabha seats due to their declining populations, highlighting the disparity between states that have successfully lowered fertility rates and those that have not.
Naidu's call for pro-natalist policies brings to the forefront questions about their effectiveness. While he references countries grappling with similar issues, research suggests that such policies often fail to yield significant increases in birth rates. Countries like Japan and China have struggled despite implementing various incentives to encourage larger families. Academics argue that financial support alone is not a comprehensive solution. Successful strategies in Scandinavian countries emphasize comprehensive family support, gender equality, and extensive parental leave.
Historically, politicians in southern states have been concerned about rapid population growth, often associating high fertility rates with food security challenges. However, southern states have successfully managed to reduce fertility rates over the decades. Andhra Pradesh, for instance, achieved Replacement Level Fertility in 2004, following the examples set by Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Previously, the state had laws discouraging larger families, but these regulations have since been repealed under Naidu’s administration.
Despite lower fertility rates, India continues to be the most populous country in the world, largely due to population momentum.
Experts propose that migration could serve as a viable solution to the population imbalances between northern and southern India. Migration can help balance demographic transitions and provide much-needed working-age individuals in states with lower populations. This approach has proven effective in the United States, where immigration has enhanced economic productivity. Instead of solely focusing on increasing birth rates, experts suggest that improving the economic productivity of the existing workforce could be more beneficial. This strategy aims to maximize the advantages of the demographic dividend currently available in India.
In conclusion, while Andhra Pradesh's initiative to promote larger families aims to address pressing demographic concerns, a multi-faceted approach that includes migration and economic productivity enhancement may offer more sustainable solutions to India's evolving population dynamics.
