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. 03/10/2024 1:04 PM
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, marked by significant military escalations. In October 2024, Iran launched over 300 projectiles, including drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles targeting Israeli military sites, following an Israeli airstrike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria. This clash has extended into Lebanon, where Hezbollah has been actively involved, further raising tensions across the region. The violence has placed the large Indian diaspora in the Gulf region in a precarious situation, with potential risks of piracy, hostage-taking, and regional instability.
Historical Context: Tensions between Israel and Iran trace back to the 1979 Iranian Revolution, when Iran transitioned from a close ally of Israel to an Islamic Republic hostile towards the Jewish state.
Religious and Ideological Differences: Israel, a predominantly Jewish state, and Iran, an Islamic republic led by Shia Islam, have deep-rooted religious and ideological animosities.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Iran’s backing of militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, which oppose Israel’s existence, has fueled the animosity.
Geopolitical Rivalry: Both nations vie for influence in regional conflicts, such as Syria and Yemen, where their interests often conflict. Israel opposes Iran's regional hegemony, while Iran supports actors antagonistic to Israel.
Nuclear Program: Israel views Iran’s nuclear ambitions as a direct threat to its security, leading to covert operations aimed at disrupting Iran’s nuclear advancements.
Proxy Conflicts: Iran and Israel engage in proxy warfare across the region, supporting opposing factions in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, contributing to a cycle of conflict.
Regional Power Dynamics: Iran and Israel's competition for regional dominance fuels military confrontations and contributes to the broader instability in the Middle East.
US Withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Deal (2018): Israel praised the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, a deal that aimed to limit Iran's nuclear capabilities.
Assassination of General Qassem Soleimani (2020): Israel supported the US strike that killed Soleimani, further aggravating hostilities.
Hamas Missile Attack (2023): Iran-backed Hamas launched a major missile attack on Israel, intensifying the Israel-Gaza conflict.
Hezbollah-Israel Clashes: Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, has launched several attacks on Israeli forces in southern Lebanon following Israeli strikes in Beirut.
Airstrike on Iranian Embassy in Syria (2024): Israel allegedly struck Iran’s embassy in Syria, prompting retaliation from Tehran, marking a major escalation in direct confrontations.
India, a major importer of oil from the Gulf region, faces significant economic risks from the conflict. Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to severe oil supply shortages, raising global oil prices and triggering inflation in India.
The large Indian diaspora in the Gulf is vulnerable to the growing instability, especially given the risks of piracy and potential evacuation scenarios, as seen in past conflicts like the Kuwait crisis during the Gulf War.
India enjoys strong ties with both Israel and Iran, creating a delicate balancing act. While India benefits from Israeli defense technology, it also maintains strategic economic relations with Iran, particularly in infrastructure projects like the Chabahar port. Escalation between Israel and Iran could force India into uncomfortable diplomatic decisions.
Instability in the region could severely affect trade and connectivity, especially through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman, key areas for global maritime shipping routes.
Oslo Accords (1993): Aimed at resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, though largely stalled today.
Abraham Accords (2020): Facilitated Israel’s normalization of relations with the UAE and Bahrain, helping reduce some regional tensions.
I2U2 Initiative (2021): A cooperative framework between India, Israel, UAE, and the US focusing on maritime security and trade.
UN Efforts: The United Nations continues to advocate for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, seeking peace through diplomacy.
Arab Peace Initiative: Proposed by Saudi Arabia in 2002, offering Israel normalized relations with Arab states in exchange for resolving the Palestinian issue.
India has historically maintained relations with both Israel and Arab states, advocating for a peaceful two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As the situation escalates, India may find it increasingly challenging to remain neutral, given its deep ties with both countries.
India supports a two-state solution, envisioning a peaceful resolution where an independent Palestinian state coexists alongside Israel. This remains a cornerstone of India's policy in the Middle East.
India’s efforts could include advocating for immediate ceasefires and humanitarian aid, while pushing for a return to the negotiation table. Addressing nuclear proliferation and encouraging regional cooperation will also be essential for long-term peace and stability.
The Iran-Israel conflict is a complex geopolitical struggle deeply rooted in historical, religious, and ideological differences, and it presents significant challenges for global peace and security. For India, maintaining a balanced diplomatic stance while safeguarding its economic and strategic interests will be paramount as tensions escalate in the region. The path forward demands a concerted effort from global powers, regional actors, and diplomatic channels to prevent further deterioration into a full-blown regional war.
