TheAcademy . 22/10/2024 6:13 PM
In an unexpected move, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu recently announced that his government is working on legislation to incentivize families to have more children. His concerns stem from the declining fertility rates in the state, which have fallen below the replacement level. With fewer than two children per family becoming the norm, Naidu fears that this trend could lead to long-term socio-economic challenges, particularly in terms of maintaining a youthful, working-age population.
This announcement reflects broader demographic trends not just in Andhra Pradesh but across South India. States such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh have been successful in reducing their fertility rates, but now face the consequences of an aging population.
The concerns expressed by Naidu are not new to Southern India. For decades, the region has led the country in population control efforts. States like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh achieved lower fertility rates early, largely due to successful family planning initiatives and improved socio-economic conditions. While this was once seen as a victory, the long-term demographic impact is becoming a cause for concern.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin has voiced concerns over the potential reduction in South India's representation in Parliament due to slower population growth compared to Northern states. As the 2021 Census has been delayed, a report from the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in 2020 provides the most recent data. The report highlights that the Southern states' aging populations may soon face significant political and economic challenges.
The demographic situation in Southern India is distinct from that of the North. The report from the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare highlights several key projections:
Aging Population: Across India, the percentage of people aged 60 and above is expected to increase significantly by 2036, with Southern states seeing a sharper rise. Kerala, for example, will have nearly one in four residents over the age of 60 by 2036.
Population Growth: Between 2011 and 2036, India's population is expected to grow by 31.1 crore people. However, the five Southern states (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu) will only contribute 2.9 crore to this growth, a stark contrast to the Northern states, which will account for half of the country's population increase.
Older Population Doubling: The elderly population in India is projected to more than double from 10 crore in 2011 to 23 crore by 2036. This trend will be particularly pronounced in the South, further exacerbating concerns about the dependency ratio and workforce shortages.
An aging population raises several critical issues. As the proportion of elderly citizens increases, the state's dependency ratio—the percentage of the population that is not working—also rises. This places a greater burden on the working-age population to support the elderly through taxes, healthcare costs, and social security systems. With fewer young people entering the workforce, the state's economy may slow, and healthcare systems could become overwhelmed by the increasing demand for elderly care services.
On the political front, Southern states fear that their slower population growth could lead to a reduction in their representation in Parliament. As electoral delimitation—re-drawing constituency boundaries based on population size—approaches, states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh, where population growth remains high, could gain more seats, further marginalizing the South.
CM Naidu cited examples from countries like Japan, China, and parts of Europe where governments have implemented pro-natalist policies to encourage larger families. However, experts argue that such policies have had limited success, particularly in developed societies with high levels of education and prosperity. Social demographer Sonalde Desai and other scholars, such as P.M. Kulkarni and Deepak Mishra, have pointed out that financial incentives alone are often insufficient to persuade families to have more children.
Scandinavian countries have seen moderate success in stabilizing fertility rates through comprehensive family support systems, including affordable childcare and gender equality measures. However, countries like Japan and China, despite offering financial incentives, have struggled to reverse their declining birth rates.
Naidu's remarks represent a significant shift in India's political discourse on population. Just a few decades ago, the country's primary concern was overpopulation, with policymakers focusing on controlling fertility rates. Southern states, including Andhra Pradesh, played a crucial role in achieving replacement-level fertility early. Andhra Pradesh, for example, reached a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman in 2004. The state even implemented a law barring individuals with more than two children from contesting local elections, which was later repealed.
Today, the conversation has changed. With fertility rates falling below replacement levels and India now being the world's most populous country, the focus is shifting to maintaining a sufficient young population to support economic growth. Naidu's proposal to incentivize larger families reflects this new concern.
While pro-natalist policies have proven largely ineffective globally, migration could offer a solution to the South's demographic challenges. Internal migration from Northern to Southern states could help fill workforce gaps, as younger, working-age individuals move to regions with better employment opportunities. This model mirrors the United States, where immigration has played a crucial role in sustaining economic growth by providing a steady influx of workers.
Economists like Kulkarni and Mishra also argue that India should focus on improving labor productivity rather than merely increasing the population. By capitalizing on its demographic dividend—a large share of the population being of working age—India can maximize economic growth without necessarily expanding its population. Investments in education, skill development, and healthcare will be critical in ensuring that the workforce remains productive and competitive in the global economy.
As Andhra Pradesh considers incentivizing larger families, the broader debate around fertility rates, aging populations, and political representation takes center stage. While the state faces real challenges related to its declining young population, global evidence suggests that pro-natalist policies alone may not provide a sustainable solution. Instead, a combination of internal migration, improvements in labor productivity, and a focus on harnessing the demographic dividend could help balance the needs of India's growing economy with the realities of its shifting population dynamics. Effective policies and long-term planning will be essential for ensuring that South India can navigate its demographic future.
